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After more than 10 years of development, the traditional car ushered in a recession. Over the past 10 years, the "motorized + Intelligent + shared" auto driving vehicle has quickly become the focus of competition among car companies. But it has not been mass production, giving people a "ungrounded" feeling. What are the problems of self driving cars in the near future of 2019?
·Crazy money burning tactics of new force car enterprisesAt present, most of the auto driving test vehicles of enterprises are electric vehicles. In fact, it’s not that the fuel vehicles can’t realize the auto driving function, but because the vehicle cost of electric vehicles is more economic.
It is generally believed that it is easier to build an electric car than to build an autopilot, so many car companies set their previous goal on building an electric vehicle.The development of Chinese automobile market in recent years is a good miniature. Around 2015, a number of emerging car companies emerged in China’s car market, mainly composed of new force car companies with no internet background and traditional car companies with experience in producing fuel vehicles.
The entry of new force vehicle enterprises has brought a lot of money. But automobile manufacturing is a very expensive industry. Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Group, once said, "don’t build a car without tens or hundreds of billions!" Soon China’s car market ushered in a reshuffle, after a short period of brilliant new car companies began to decline collectively. Around 2017, there were endless news reports about the loss and bankruptcy of automobile enterprises. For example, leeco automobile led by Jia Yueting failed to finish after a huge loss, and Weilai automobile created by Li Bin lost at least 22 billion yuan in four years.
However, not all enterprises focus on the "car building" link. Waymo, a subsidiary of Google’s parent company, said in 2016 that instead of focusing on making cars, it focused on licensing autonomous driving technology to traditional car companies and transportation companies. Later, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and other companies also said that their starting point is not car building.
·The exact time of the first year is uncertainAutopilot is not as simple as we imagine. Behind the frenzy of burning money, it has not brought about technological leaps and bounds. Before that, we were quite optimistic about "when the first year of autopilot comes," and some even think that 2019 will be the first year of the year.
Last March, the Uber test car crash caused people to fall in love with the confidence of autopilot cars. At the International Forum on SAE-AWC 2019 automatic driving safety technology at the end of August, Junko Yoshida, chief editor of ASPENCORE global joint venture and chief international correspondent, asked, "how do you tell that your self driving car is safe enough to commercialize?" The guests fell into a brief silence.
For the auto driving industry, data sharing is a more convenient way to speed up the pace of mass production. When safety is no longer regarded as a selling point, when everyone supports data sharing, the automatic driving vehicle can achieve mass production faster. However, many companies have invested a lot of money in autopilot car testing. Sharing these data at this stage seems unlikely. Huang Shaotang, chief technology officer of Jiangling auto, said that although some auto alliances are in the process of information exchange, due to the high cost of data collection, in fact, there is not much data shared.
Strictly speaking, the production time of autopilot cars can not be predicted. It can only be declared commercially available one day after it has been tested to some extent. At what stage will the auto driving test be commercialized? At present, there is no uniform official standard in the industry.·First in business applications
At present, there is still a long way to go between intelligent driving and automatic driving, which are already commercially available. Taking Tesla’s autopilot as an example, although it is a collection of many high technologies, it is still only an ADAS system, and its autopilot level is also below L3 level.
Due to the low level of automatic driving of L3, it is necessary for human drivers to take over the system in critical period, and human response speed is limited, which is likely to lead to traffic accidents in the process of taking over control. Therefore, enterprises led by waymo directly skip L3 and focus on the higher level L4-L5.
Jin An, director of market application and business development of Greater China Automotive Division, said: "so far, there is not a fully automatic driving car on the market." Fully automatic driving is a huge system engineering, which needs to be developed for many years before mass production. From the perspective of technology development, it will first appear in closed-loop areas and commercial applications, such as industrial parks, farmland, highways, public transport vehicles and other applications. "
In China, self driving trucks have been used in a small range. Last April, 5 self driving freight trucks modified by Tucson in the future were put into use in Caofeidian port. In the future, Tucson will also carry out the automatic port rail transport between freight stations on the Donghai Bridge.
In recent years, although many multimedia reports have reported the applications of autopilot cars, because the people can not experience these services only in small scale, small batch testing or trial operation, so the automatic driving vehicle still appears to be down to earth. The perceptual technology still needs to be improved.